Stephen Chaudoin Faculty, International Relations Overview: Many interactions between countries depend on choices made by democratically selected leaders. We argue that the experience of being elected alters subsequent leader behavior at the international level, a phenomenon we call the election effect. Specifically, democratic election intensifies in-group identification and generates a sense of obligation to voters,…
If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe it’s the Wrong Model
Gary King Faculty, Methods and Formal Theory Overview: Election surprises are hardly surprising. Unexpected challengers, deaths, retirements, scandals, campaign strategies, real world events, and heresthetical maneuvers all conspire to confuse the best models. Quantitative researchers usually model district-level elections with linear functions of measured covariates, to account for systematic variation, and normal error terms, to…
Algorithm-Assisted Redistricting Methodology (ALARM) Project
Kosuke Imai Faculty, Methods and Formal Theory Overview: Together with two graduate students – Christopher Kenny and Tyler Simko – as well as an alumni of this department – Shiro Kuriwaki at Yale University, we developed a simulation algorithm and used it to detect gerrymandering. Our algorithm was discussed by supreme court justices in one…
Measuring the Partisan Behavior of U.S. Newspapers, 1880 to 1980
James SnyderFaculty, American Politics Overview: In this project—joint with Shigeo Hirano at Columbia University—we study newspaper partisan behavior and content, which we measure using coverage and commentary of partisan activities, institutions and actors. We use this measure to describe the levels of relative partisan behavior during the period 1880 to 1900, and to describe changes…